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HypervenomX Proximo IC black

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geschrieben 08:38 20.9.2016   [ zitieren ]

Arsenal knocked out Tottenham during the corresponding week 12 months ago but went on to be beaten 3-0 by Sheffield Wednesday on a memorable night in the fourth round, so are uneasy in the betting ahead of their trip to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday evening.

That heavy defeat at Hillsborough came as a real shock but the Gunners' record in this competition has taken a nosedive in recent seasons and they've not progressed past round four since making the quarter-finals (or beyond) for the 10th year in succession during the 2012/13 campaign.

That obvious downturn in League Cup form is, of course, a slight concern ahead of this one but there's a case to be made that they've just been a little unfortunate with the draw of late.

Arsene Wenger's side admittedly didn't cover themselves in glory at Bradford four years ago, exiting on penalties following a 1-1 draw with the then League Two club, but since then they've been dispatched early by Premier League rivals Chelsea and Southampton, plus last year's disappointment at Wednesday.

The Owls raised their game considerably against a strong-looking Arsenal XI and it appears many punters are hoping Forest can do something similar, but there are major fears over a defence which could be ruthlessly exposed by their top-flight opponents, no matter how many changes Wenger makes from the team that enjoyed a 4-1 weekend stroll at Hull.

magista obra yellow Philippe Montanier's men have recorded 2-1 away wins over Doncaster and Millwall so far in the EFL Cup, while entertaining home victories over Burton, Wigan and Leeds have been the highlights in the league, those three producing 18 goals between them.

HypervenomX Proximo IC black So there have been obvious bright spots, but Forest have a pretty blatant Achilles Heel and were eventually beaten 2-1 by Norwich having taken a lead into the break last time out at the weekend.

Superfly V Mercurial blue They have yet to keep a clean sheet in 10 games across all competitions this season.

MagistaX P roximo Black Not one of those matches has come at the City Ground in midweek which led me to investigate whether or not the prospect of a night under the lights could see the home side step up to new levels.

X 16+ Purechaos black Last season's evidence is not encouraging. The East Midlands outfit won just two of their nine home weekday matches last term, one (from seven) coming on a Tuesday night, so the Forest faithful who turn up on a regular basis probably aren't expecting fireworks, unlike the Wednesday fans last year who appeared full of positivity, no doubt in part due to their fantastic Tuesday night record (the Owls played nine such games in 2015/16 and went unbeaten, winning five).

Predicting the visitors' line-up won't be easy so steering clear of the scorer markets looks sensible, though another start for Alex Iwobi would make him of interest given his overall sharpness and willingness to get into dangerous areas in recent weeks.

Instead the recommendation is to go for goals.

Arsenal should cover the handicap and 6/4 against them winning by at least a two-goal margin is on the radar but they too have been leaky at the back - their only shutout so far came in the 0-0 draw with Leicester - and preference is to back over 3.5 to be scored on the night.

Over that particular line - combined with an Arsenal win - can be backed at odds close to 3/1 with some smaller firms but the prices simply for at least four to be scored appear perfectly reasonable (6/4 generally) in light of the fact the wager would have paid out in three of Arsenal's five Premier League games and five of Forest's eight Championship outings this year.

Elsewhere on the coupon, colleague Ben Coley makes a sound case for both Liverpool and Newcastle sending out decent teams against Derby and Wolves respectively in his outright preview and there's no temptation to oppose them at odds-on prices, while Everton also feature in the staking plan so we'll give them a wide berth, though sweeping changes could make them a shade vulnerable at home to an in-form Norwich.


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